2022 house of representatives election prediction

You can also view these ratings as a table. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. By Leke Baiyewu. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. File usage on Commons. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. Redistricting will change everything. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. Click here! Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Alabama. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Republicans are favored to win the House. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. We default to the Deluxe . [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. 50. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

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